The truth is you don't know what is going to happen tomorrow. Life is a crazy ride, and nothing is guaranteed.

Eminem

out

 

When the first few referendum results were announced, commentators seemed surprised by the high percentage of “Leave” votes.   This pattern was repeated elsewhere, in areas both deprived and not. The nation is divided and the future is more uncertain than ever, with the departure in October of Prime Minister Cameron, a possible leadership battle in the Labour Party and the implied threat of another Scottish referendum.

 

 

I believe that much of the result represents a protest vote against the establishment, including both major political parties.   In many areas, the percentage of those who voted was higher than in the general election. Clearly, many people feel disenfranchised and left out.   This populist uprising, as opposed to those who made an informed and considered choice to leave, bodes ill for the future.   Will we have a home-grown Trump on our hands?

 

 

Economically, whatever the truth of the pre-vote alarmism, there will be a prolonged period of uncertainty ahead.   This is not what markets want. I foresee sporadic fluctuations in currency and share pricing. One major issue is whether or not the Bank of England decides to raise interest rates.   Factors against this are that the Euro may also weaken against the US Dollar and that a lower Pound could make UK exports more competitive.

 

 

Brexit may well help the upper-level property market, especially as foreigners seize the chance to buy at more advantageous exchange rates. On the other hand, economic uncertainty could inhibit price rises in the mainstream market.

 

As the rhyme goes “Roses are red, violets are blue, I don’t know what’s going to happen, and neither do you”.

 

 

It’s an ever-changing world and it seems that the title of forthcoming ASTL conference “Lending in an uncertain world” (to be held on 22 September) is very apt.

 

 

The opinions expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily represent those of the ASTL or its members.

 

 

With hindsight, given the swift appointment of PM Theresa May, the article seems to have been unnecessarily alarmist.

 

 

A version of this article appeared in the July edition of Mortgage Introducer